NOAH DAVIS – CONCACAF is considering changing its qualification format. The new plan calls for eight groups of four teams, reduced to four groups of four, and finally two groups of four. The winner of each group automatically qualifies for the World Cup with the second-place finishers play for the third automatic qualification spot.
The goal is to allow more teams to participate in meaningful qualification and have a chance to reach the World Cup. On the surface, that’s not a bad idea; under the current format, teams such as El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago have almost no chance to reach the World Cup despite participating in the Hexagonal round, not to mention Canada, Guatemala, and others that didn’t even reach the final stage.
Those countries deserve a shot. But the new plan means Mexico and the United States lose out in more ways than one.
First, the obvious: They likely won’t face each other in qualifying, a damn shame for soccer in the region (and the world). As anyone who’s been to Azteca or Columbus to see one of those games can attest, there isn’t anything else like it in North and Central America. It might not be the best rivalry in the world but it’s close. Losing that home-and-home is nothing short of a travesty for soccer fans home and abroad.
But there’s an issue beyond spectacle: It’s much, much easier to finish in the top half of a six-team group than to win a four-team one. It’s simple math. With 10 matches, a team can have a couple bad results (US 1-3 Costa Rica, US 2-2 El Salvador) and still earn a qualification spot. Given only six games, the margin for error is significantly reduced. (I’m working with someone on the statistics and should have hard numbers soon.)
Ultimately, the change is about CONCACAF’s officials putting the hopes and dreams of the entire region over the wishes of its two best teams. Thirty-eight confederations against two. You can’t exactly fault Jack Warner for siding with the majority, but the Mexicans and the Americans are right to fill jilted.