MICHAEL BLAUVELT – Charlie Davies has one goal in a reserve club match since returning to competitive play and U.S. fans are already urging Bob Bradley to name him to the MNT roster for the upcoming Brazil match.  A bit premature?  Given that he played approximately 10 minutes in his last match (on July 24), yeah I’d say so.  But something about Charlie Davies’ 2009 performances electrified American soccer to the point that his brief time at the top for the MNT turned him into US Soccer’s Chuck Norris.  At the pace Charlie’s lore grows, one day we may tell our children about the time when he kicked a ball so hard it went straight through the goalie’s thigh and all the cans of miracle spray in the world couldn’t heal him.

But what made Charlie Davies great?  Or, more specifically, what made him so different from his replacement, Robbie Findley?  The numbers from the 2009 Confederations and the 2010 World Cups appear to tell the tale. 

The Data

I took the statistics that FIFA compiled for Charlie Davies at the 2009 Confederations Cup and those compiled for Robbie Findley at the 2010 World Cup and put them side by side.  Why these two competitions?  Two reasons: (1) I think both tournaments established the players’ reputations and (2) there are much more detailed statistics available for them than for any of the players’ other matches.  And I selected Dempsey and Donovan because they’re the players most often tasked with supporting the attack, so strikers’ connections with them are arguably more important.

To adjust for Davies’ almost 100 extra minutes of playing time, I calculated the average per 10 minutes played for their stats.  For every 10 minutes of play, this is what Davies and Findley did:

	Davies	Findlay
Minutes	265	169
Goals	0.04	0.00
Shots	0.19	0.06
Shots on Goal	0.08	0.06
Pass %	46%	49%
From Dempsey	0.68	0.12
From Donovan	0.49	0.41
To Dempsey	0.26	0.18
To Donovan	0.34	0.18
Distance (km)	1.15	1.12
Dist. w/ Poss (km)	0.40	0.46
Dist. w/o Poss (km)	0.49	0.42
Top Speed (km/hr)	30.17	30.13

Observations

Many of the numbers are closer than I expected.  My hypothesis was that Davies just hustled more or faster than Findley.  But that’s not borne out by the numbers.  Davies was only four hundredths of a km/hr faster than Findley.  In a 10-minute span, Davies averaged only 30 meters more distance.  And while Findley wasn’t quite so active on defense, he was even more active than Davies offensively.  Even their shots on goal worked out to roughly the same average (though Charlie took shots 3x as frequently as Robbie).

But there are telling differences.  For example, Davies received passes from Dempsey 5.5x as often as Findley.  While Dempsey’s had a hard time winning over U.S. fans, he makes things happen on offense (if the strikers can get open for him).   Findley received only two passes from him in 169 minutes.  Two.  That borders on criminal.  And while Davies and Findley both received passes from Donovan with roughly the same frequency, Findley didn’t repay the favor nearly as frequently as Davies did.  Finally, Davies took shots 3x as frequently as Findley did.

Analysis

There are a couple takeaways from all of this (all based on the assumption that you would rather have Confederations Cup-era Davies up top than World Cup-era Findley).  First, speed and hustle are great, but you have to link up with your midfielders.  This is especially true when they’re playmakers like Donovan and Dempsey.  If one of the most creative guys on the pitch can’t find or hook up with you, you’ve got a problem.  Second, even speedy strikers need to keep an eye toward passing back to their teammates.  Finally, shots (even those that aren’t on goal and are therefore very unlikely to score) still make their mark on crowds.

Like all U.S. fans, I would love to see Charlie Davies step back onto the pitch for the MNT.  But if Robbie Findley plays instead, we can rest assured that at least he’ll play just as hard as Davies would have.

by admin